I placed an Iron Condor on the SPY ETF on the close today, betting that the market will be slightly bearish and trade in a narrow range until expiration. Expiry is this Friday, so two days of trading activity.
Using my probability estimator, I have a 76.85% chance of a win:
Just missed out on this one. I ended up closing out the SPY position an hour before market close at a small loss of $22. The max loss was $71 and max profit $29. However, the ETF was looking like closing between the two call strikes. If allowed to expire, then I would have ended up being assigned short stock on the short call with the long call expiring worthless. I didn't want to take on a short position so needed to exit prior ro expiry. Too bad it was so close, just missed out there. Here is the final chart:
|SPY Mar04 Iron Condor (comms $4.32)|
|SPY Mar04 200 Call||-1||0.48||0.58||-10|
|SPY Mar04 201 Call||1||0.2||0.07||-13|
|SPY Mar04 193 Put||1||0.06||0||-6|
|SPY Mar04 194 Put||-1||0.07||0||7|