Option Portfolio

Market Close January 19, 2017

P&L up $3

SymbolPositionPriceCloseP&L
GLW Short Iron Condor
GLW Feb17'17 $25 Call-30.480.473
GLW Feb17'17 $26 Call30.20.16-12
GLW Feb17'17 $23 Put-30.230.26-9
GLW Feb17'17 $22 Put30.130.221
Total-1.14-1.113
Grand Total3

How to Adjust a Losing Iron Condor?

January 25th, 2017

Looks like my pre-earnings Iron Condor strategy was indeed a bad idea. GLW released their earnings before the market opened Tuesday 24th January to the surprise of analysts.

GLW Chart

Core EPS turned out to be $0.50 on a predicted $0.44. The stock opened strong and rallied higher throughout the day to close the session up 5.7% to $26.18.

The stock is now outside the upper breakeven point of $25.38 and if it continues I will realise my max loss of $186 ($62 per contract).

What Options do I have to Adjust?

I have a few alternatives to consider as to how to manage this trade at this point:

  1. Do nothing and hope that the market pulls back from now until expiration
  2. Sell a higher strike put spread
  3. Sell a higher strike put spread in the next expiration
  4. Reverse the existing short call spread into a long call spread
  5. Close the short call and leave the long call to run
  6. Double down with another Iron Condor

In considering the above, I looked at the option prices at the close for the Feb 17th options:

GLW Option Chain for 24th January Close

Since the pop in stock price due to earnings, the uncertainty has since been remove and can be seen in much lower option prices. Implied volatility has dropped to 18% so 2, 3 and 6 don’t look like bringing in much premium. Plus, putting on another Iron Condor in March would mean having to put it with narrow strikes in order to make it worthwhile but also means a lower chance of the stock staying between the bands.

Also to consider is the sentiment since the report, which was very favorable for the future outlook of the stock. I would say that I am now bullish on the stock.

Pre-market activity also shows a strong open with the stock having traded $26.30 with an hour before the open. So what I’m going to do is go with #5 above; close out the short $25 call and leave the $26 long call open. The $25 calls closed at $1.32 but with the pre-market looking to open higher, I’m not sure what price to go with. Perhaps yesterday’s offer price of $1.35?

Iron Condor Pre-Earnings

January 19th, 2017

It's not always a good idea to take on short volatility strategies pre-earnings, but take a look at this Iron Condor setup for GLW.

GLW Iron Condor Setup

B/SStrike C/P Price
 Sell $25 Call 0.48
Buy $26 Call 0.20
Sell $23 Put 0.23
Buy $22 Put 0.13
Total Credit $38

GLW Iron Condor Payoff

The stock has earnings out January 24th and the options expire February 17th. The implied volatility suggests there is some uncertainty leading into the announcement; IV is relatively high at 25% compared to historical vol of 15%.

GLW Volatility Chart

Max profit on this is $38 per contract, which is the net credit received at the time of trade. Max loss is $62. At the current volatility level, there is a 69.27% chance of success with this trade.

Long 5 $12.50 Call Options

Trade Start: 25th October

wpg Chart for the 25th October

Description.

Option Scanner Results for 24th October

Option Scans for 24th October

Option Chain for 24th October

Option Prices for 24th October

Long 5 $15 Put Options

Trade Start: 24th October, 2016

blmn Chart for the 24th October

Only 0.55 for these puts when they are 3 months out. The chart doesn't make it look like a good trade but there's plenty of time in this one. Earnings are out October 28th.

Option Scanner Results for 21st October

Option Scans for 21st October

Option Chain for 21st October

Option Prices for 21st October

2016 Closed Position Summary

TradeOpenCloseDaysP&LTotal
COH Iron Condor25-Jan-165-Feb-161131.431.4
COH Adj Call Spread3-Feb-165-Feb-16255.586.9
CAT Short Call Spread28-Jan-1612-Feb-1615-22.564.4
COH Assignment8-Feb-1612-Feb-16474.6139
FCX Iron Butterfly28-Jan-1618-Feb-162135174
FSLR Iron Condor23-Feb-1626-Feb-163-26.2147.8
TGT Short Call Spread23-Feb-1626-Feb-163-66.681.2
EPD Put Bear Spread29-Feb-1618-Mar-1618-4041.2
SPY Iron Condor2-Mar-164-Mar-162-2219.2
RCL Put Spread24-Mar-1615-Apr-1622-143.5-124.3
MU Straddle30-Mar-161-Apr-162-50.6-174.9
RIG Put Spread30-Mar-1615-Apr-1616-56.7-231.6
VZ Long Call30-Mar-1615-Apr-1616-101.6-333.2
JWN Long Put30-Mar-1615-Apr-1616364.231
C Straddle31-Mar-1615-Apr-1615221.8252.8
EMC Long Put13-Apr-1620-May-1637-16092.8
ETE Long Call19-Apr-1620-May-1631168260.8
MRO Long Call19-Apr-1620-May-1631-75185.8
KEY Long Call20-Apr-1620-May-16306191.8
MS Long Put20-Apr-1620-May-1630-10091.8
VALE Long Put21-Apr-1620-May-1629360451.8
JNPR Long Put21-Apr-1620-May-1629-62389.8
KMI Long Call28-Apr-1620-May-1622-100289.8
IPHI Long Call29-Apr-1620-May-1621-55234.8
NG Long Call29-Apr-1620-May-1621-80154.8
MRO Short Call29-Apr-1620-May-162155209.8
CTL Long Put2-May-1620-May-1618212421.8
HIMX Long Call9-May-1613-May-164-55366.8
ETE Short Call10-May-1620-May-161055421.8
VIAV Long Call24-May-1617-Jun-1624-100321.8
CYH Long Strangle25-May-1617-Jun-1623-110211.8
HBI Long Strangle31-May-1617-Jun-1617-11596.8
ANF Long Put31-May-1617-Jun-1617-906.8
RF Long Call1-Jun-1617-Jun-1616-80-73.2
WLL Long Put8-Jun-1624-Jun-1616300226.8
ANF Covered Put17-Jun-1624-Jun-16760286.8
ATVI Put Spread2-Jun-1615-Jul-1643-126160.8
CY Long Call2-Jun-1615-Jul-1643-42118.8
GOGO Long Put6-Jun-1615-Jul-1639-124-5.2
VLO Long Put6-Jun-1615-Jul-1639-100-105.2
RBS Long Call8-Jun-1615-Jul-1637-120-225.2
PBI Long Call9-Jun-1615-Jul-1636-100-325.2
GGAL Long Call9-Jun-1615-Jul-163660-265.2
MT Long Call9-Jun-1615-Jul-1636-110-375.2
PLD Long Call9-Jun-1615-Jul-163690-285.2
VIAV Covered Call22-Jun-1622-Jul-1630258-27.2
BID Long Call11-Jul-169-Aug-162919501922.8
NLY Long Put8-Jul-1619-Aug-1642-901832.8
LGF Long Put8-Jul-1619-Aug-1642-1451687.8
CMCSA Long Call11-Jul-1619-Aug-1639-1001587.8
D Long Put26-Jul-1619-Aug-1624-1351452.8
PEG Long Put27-Jul-1619-Aug-16231401592.8
KR Long Call27-Jul-1619-Aug-1623-1501442.8
DB Long Put11-Aug-1616-Sep-1636-1501292.8
LOW Long Put11-Aug-1616-Sep-163610502342.8
FIT Long Call11-Aug-1616-Sep-1636-1262216.8
GT Long Call18-Aug-1616-Sep-16294502666.8
NUAN Long Put18-Aug-1616-Sep-1629-1402526.8
GFI Long Call13-Sep-1621-Oct-1638-1702356.8
EGO Long Call14-Sep-1621-Oct-1637-2002156.8
CCL Long Put19-Sep-1621-Oct-1632-1202036.8
BAC Long Butterfly27-Sep-1621-Oct-16241052022.8
DDD Long Put20-Sep-1627-Oct-1637-491987.8
JCP Long Call Spread23-Sep-1627-Oct-1634-471940.8
CNP Long Call26-Sep-1627-Oct-1631-1501790.8

2015 Closed Position Summary

TradeOpenCloseDaysP&LTotal
BBY Short Put6-Jan-1517-Jan-15116969
F Long Call9-Jan-1530-Jan-1521-2049
AVP Calendar14-Jan-1527-Feb-1544-2326
AVP Put Spread14-Jan-1527-Feb-1544-32-6
COH Short Condor15-Jan-1530-Jan-15158175
GRPN Buy-Write23-Jan-1513-Feb-1521-3639
WTW Short Put23-Jan-152-Mar-1538-560-521
CRUS Double Calendar26-Jan-1530-Jan-154-1-522
SPY Short Condor12-Feb-1520-Feb-158-66.4-588.4
MX Double Calendar13-Feb-1520-Mar-1535-71.6-660
JCP Double Calendar25-Feb-1513-Mar-1516-3-663
KYTH Short Butterfly25-Feb-1520-Mar-1523-100-763
TASR Short Condor25-Feb-1520-Mar-152335-728
BBRY Long Butterfly24-Mar-152-Apr-159-84-812
BTU Long Put Spread12-Jun-153-Jul-1521117.5-694.5
MU Long Put Spread17-Jun-153-Jul-151671.4-623.1
RAD Short Call Spread19-Jun-153-Jul-151492-531.1

49 Comments

Kumar August 29th, 2012 at 10:23pm

thanks for your prompt response.

a query on Historical Vol Calc spreadsheet.

when I press GETDATA latest Nifty data is getting updated in the spreadhsheet.

Last row shows date of 28th Aug only

29th Aug Nifty closing prices is NOT Getting automatically picked up.

am I missing anything here

thanks

Peter August 29th, 2012 at 7:58pm

Hi Kumar,

Yes, IV (implied volatility) is only for derivatives (e.g. options). The historical volatility spreadsheet calculates the historical volatility.

Historical volatility = past volatility
Implied volatility = future estimate volatility

Peter August 29th, 2012 at 7:15pm

Hi Mojalefa,

Are you after an online course? If so, check out the Members Area here for video courses on learning options.

Kumar August 29th, 2012 at 5:20am

Thanks for the Historical value spreadsheet It was useful.

a query

I thought IV can be only for different strike price of an underlying index / stock, then how come I see IV for underlying index / stock itself.

thanks

Mojalefa Mokotedi August 17th, 2012 at 5:55am

Hi Peter

I am interested in Financial Markets,could you please advise on which courses should be taken to understand currency options etc.

Peter June 20th, 2012 at 1:18am

Hi James,

Sure, send me an email and I'll reply back with the file.

James June 15th, 2012 at 8:58am

Hi Peter,

I came across some of your previous work where you created a Historical Volatility spreadsheet.

The spreadsheet downloaded historical stock prices from the web and calculated the historical standard deviation for the range of values.

Would you be able to provide me with the VBA code?

Thanks in advance and great work

Peter April 20th, 2012 at 12:30am

Hi Allan,

No worries about the replies - happy to help ;-)

Ok, I think there's some confusion between the market value of the position and the P&L.

So, you bought an option with a strike price of 440, which you paid 16,803. The current price of AAPL is 608.34.

You exercise the option. This means you buy the stock at a purchase price (strike price) of 440. Total cost to buy the stock = 44,000 (440 x 100).

BUT - you have also already "paid" 16,803 for the right to have this position (option premium). So the total "cost" of this position = 60,803.

So now you are long 100 shares of APPL worth 60,803.

The current market value of this position is 60,834 (608.34 x 100).

With the price of AAPL being 608.34 and you having a "long" position of 100 shares worth 60,803 means your profit if you sell the shares back is $31.

allan April 19th, 2012 at 8:49pm

You have a lot of patience Peter-I can tell reading thru all the comments responding to questions. I dont want to beat a dead horse but I still dont have my arms around the value of my appl call if at expiration it has not increased in value. I think at expiration I will receive appl shares worth 608/share since 608 is a price greater than the 440 strike. If correct I will receive shares with a mkt value of 608x100=60,800 for a call that I paid 16,800 in prem (168x100) for a strike price of 440 (440x100=44,000) I think Im even-no out of pocket loss. I know Im wrong and I know it has something to do with extrinsic value but its still not clear to me how much $ I will lose on this trade:(

Peter April 19th, 2012 at 6:30pm

Hi Allan,

I see where you're coming from: that the intrinsic value = the premium? Not always.

The price of an option that you see in the market will be made up of two types of value: intrinsic value and extrinsic value.

For a call option, yes, you're right that the intrinsic value is the maximum between 0 and the stock minus the strike price. But there is also value in the expectation that the option could be worth a lot more by the expiration date - this is called extrinsic value (or time value).

If you did pay 168.03 for the option (that being the market price) then, yes, it is all intrinsic value. It's not worthless - it is worth 168.03, which is the price you paid for it. So, you've not made any profits yet. You've paid money to the option seller and in return received an asset worth 168.03.

If the value of this asset increases and you sell it for a higher price then you will receive money - the difference between what you have paid and received will be your profit.

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